The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, released today, paints a grim picture of the future, warning that progress in human development is slowly eroding, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks. The report, based on nearly two decades of risk perception data, highlights a world where systemic shifts in power dynamics, climate, technology, and demographics are pushing the world’s adaptive capacity to its limits.

The report, a collaboration between the World Economic Forum, Zurich Insurance Group, and Marsh McLennan, is based on the views of over 1,400 global risk experts, policymakers, and industry leaders surveyed in September 2023. The findings suggest a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term, expected to worsen over the long term. While 30% of global experts foresee an increased likelihood of global catastrophes in the next two years, nearly two-thirds expect this in the next decade.

The report highlights concerns over a persistent cost-of-living crisis and the intertwined risks of AI-driven misinformation and disinformation, and societal polarization. These issues are expected to dominate the risks outlook for 2024. The connection between falsified information and societal unrest is expected to become a focal point amid elections in several major economies set to take place in the next two years. Interstate armed conflict is a top five concern over the next two years, with ongoing conflicts, underlying geopolitical tensions, and eroding societal resilience risking conflict contagion.

Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum, warns of an unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity. “The worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks – including misinformation and disinformation – to propagate,” Zahidi said. She called on world leaders to address short-term crises and lay the groundwork for a more resilient, sustainable, inclusive future.

The report also warns of persistent economic uncertainty and growing economic and technological divides in the coming years. Lack of economic opportunity is ranked sixth in the next two years. Over the longer term, barriers to economic mobility could build, locking out large segments of the population from economic opportunities. Conflict-prone or climate-vulnerable countries may increasingly be isolated from investment, technologies, and related job creation.