As we approach the year 2024, the world is abuzz with speculation about the state of the global economy. Economists, policymakers, and business leaders are all keenly observing trends and making predictions. Based on data from the World Economic Forum, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), here’s a comprehensive look at what we can expect.

Global Economic Outlook

The global economy is expected to experience a slowdown in growth. According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024.

The Conference Board, a global research association, forecasts that global real GDP will grow by 2.9 percent in 2023, down from 3.3 percent in 2022. They expect further slowing to 2.5 percent in 2024. Economic growth is weighed down by still high inflation and continued monetary policy tightening.

Geopolitical Volatility

Geopolitics is expected to create significant volatility in the global economy in 2024. According to a survey conducted by the World Economic Forum, nine out of ten economists believe geopolitics will create economic volatility in the year ahead. Domestic politics could also stoke economic volatility according to 79% of respondents, with the impending US electoral cycle likely a driver of this sentiment.

Asia’s Economic Forecast

Turning our attention to Asia, economies in this region are projected to grow by 4.8% this year and next year, improving on the 4.2% growth rate in 2022, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in April 2023.

The fastest-growing economies in Asia are forecasted to be Macao (+27.2%), Palau (+12.4%), and India (+6.3%). The economy of Macao is heavily reliant on tourism, an industry that represents over 60% of the region’s jobs, as well as roughly 70% of its GDP.

Palau is a tiny country consisting of 340 islands, representing an overall land area of 180 square miles (466 square kilometers). According to the U.S. State Department, tourism represents approximately 40% of Palau’s GDP.

India, which recently became the world’s largest country by population, is expected to reach a peak of 1.7 billion people by 2064.

China’s Economic Outlook

China’s recent stimulus boost stoked some optimism about the economy’s recovery in the coming quarters, but economists are keeping their 2024 growth forecasts steady for now to assess how the measures will play out. The world’s second-largest economy is projected to grow 4.5% next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists conducted after last week’s official announcement of additional stimulus.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while there are many variables at play that could influence these forecasts, it’s clear that we’re heading into a period of slower global economic growth with significant geopolitical volatility. However, Asia appears poised for strong growth in the year ahead