A report from Goldman Sachs Research makes some stunning predictions as the researchers believe the world’s fastest growth period is over… possibly for the next 50 years or so. The world’s economic growth is slowing, but emerging economies in Asia are still expected to grow rapidly. These economies are catching up to wealthier nations, and they are poised to play an increasingly important role in the global economy.
Worldwide potential growth is slowing
The rate at which the global economy can grow without producing too much inflation is forecast to average 2.8% annually between 2024 and 2029, according to the report. This is a significant slowdown from the average of 3.6% in the decade before the global financial crisis and 3.2% in the 10 years before the Covid pandemic.
There are a number of factors contributing to this slowdown, including the aging of the global population and a slowdown in globalization. The world’s rate of population growth has halved during the past 50 years and is now at less than 1%.
In addition, globalization has slowed in recent years, as countries have become more protectionist. This has led to a decline in productivity, as businesses have been unable to take advantage of economies of scale and specialization.
The challenges of an aging population
As people live longer, they will need more healthcare and retirement benefits, which will put a strain on government budgets. In addition, an aging population is likely to lead to a decline in labor force participation, as people retire earlier.
These challenges are likely to become more pronounced in the coming decades, as the global population continues to age. Governments will need to find ways to adapt to these challenges in order to ensure that economic growth remains sustainable.
Emerging economies are on the rise
Emerging economies are growing more quickly than developed economies, even as the global economy slows. This is due to a number of factors, including their young populations, growing middle classes, and increasing levels of urbanization.
As a result, the share of the world economy held by emerging economies is expected to continue to rise. By 2050, the five largest economies in the world are projected to be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany.
China is poised to overtake the U.S.
China is the most prominent emerging economy, and it is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by around 2035. This is due to China’s large population, strong economic growth, and increasing integration into the global economy.
India is another emerging economy that is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades. By 2075, India is projected to have the world’s second largest economy.
Challenges are everywhere
The report’s authors identify two of the biggest risks to their projections: protectionism and climate change. They argue that populist nationalists in some countries are threatening to reverse globalization, and that climate change could have a significant impact on economic growth.
However, the report also notes that there are a number of things that can be done to mitigate these risks. For example, governments can focus on sharing the benefits of globalization more equitably, and they can invest in clean energy technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Overall, the report paints a picture of a global economy that is undergoing significant change. While growth is slowing, emerging economies are leading the way, and there are a number of things that can be done to mitigate the risks posed by protectionism and climate change.
Here are some of the key changes that the report identifies:
- Global economic growth is slowing, but emerging economies are growing more quickly than developed ones.
- China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035, while India is expected to have the world’s second largest by 2075.
- Protectionism and climate change are two of the biggest risks to the report’s projections.
- There are a number of things that can be done to mitigate these risks, such as sharing the benefits of globalization more equitably and investing in clean energy technologies.
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