It’s human nature to worry about tomorrow. Climate change, war, a rising population, the impact of disease, AI and many other factors are concerns which can impact populations and derail economic progress.  So in order to better understand Asia’s future we decided to take a look at it’s economic past and present to determine likely outcomes for the years ahead.

Looking at data from 2012 onward we can see that China, India and other developing economies in Asia outpaced the average global growth rate handily. Going forward this trend is also expected to continue.

There are a few elements at play here which are important to note. First off China, India and the developing economies of Asia started from a very low point, so it’s relatively easy to chalk up big gains versus more mature economies. As well loosening governmental regulations and opening up markets is another way to quickly grow an economy. But both of those cards have now been played and so sustain growth going forward, Asian countries are going to have to be smarter. Fortunately there are signs that they are.

China is rapidly becoming “a moderately prosperous society” which is one of Xi Jinping’s goals. This is good but it means the Chinese government will have a tougher job delivering strong growth going further. The wealthier a nation becomes, the harder it is to sustain strong growth. Just look at the advanced economies of North American and Europe.

As well India faces challenges of inequality and uneven growth which threatens to derail their future plans, while ASEAN and other developing countries in Asia face their own challenges. Still most economists are optimistic about the future. The consensus is that China’s growth will slow, India’s will rise and developing countries in Asia will do quite well. Between now and 2027 Asia should handily outpace global growth again.

The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook – GDP Growth, 2012-2027

	Actual	Actual	Forecast	Projected	Trend
	2012-2016	2017	2018	2018-2022	2023-2027
China	5.3	4.2	4.0	3.8	3.3
India	6.8	6.3	6.8	6.1	5.8
Other Developing Asian Economies	4.9	5.3	5.2	5.3	4.7
World	3.0	3.2	3.2	3.0	2.8