The business travel industry is showing remarkable resilience as it emerges from the global pandemic, entering a period of post-pandemic stabilization and growth. According to the latest GBTA Business Travel Index Report, global business travel spending is projected to reach $1.48 trillion USD by the end of 2024, surpassing the pre-pandemic record of $1.43 trillion in 2019. Looking further ahead, the report forecasts spending to exceed $2 trillion by 2028, underlining the robust recovery trajectory of the sector.

Economic stability and pent-up demand have been pivotal in driving this growth. CEOs and CFOs are increasingly confident about sending their employees back on the road, contributing to a resurgence in business travel. Many major business travel markets have returned to or are nearing pre-pandemic levels, reinforcing the recovery momentum and boosting spending. However, the future outlook remains balanced, with potential upsides and downsides influencing growth projections.

These insights were unveiled in the 2024 GBTA Business Travel Index Outlook – Annual Global Report and Forecast, published by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and supported by Visa. This 16th edition of the GBTA BTI was presented at the GBTA Convention 2024 in Atlanta, attended by over 5,000 participants. The comprehensive report covers 72 countries and 44 industries, incorporating survey data and analysis from 4,100 business travelers across five global regions, offering a detailed look at business travel preferences, behaviors, and spending.

Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA, remarked, “We are witnessing the expected rebound in the sector, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of businesses and the value of business travel worldwide. With projected spending expected to continue to increase through 2028, the future of business travel looks promising. However, we must remain vigilant and adaptive to potential headwinds in this period of stabilization, as factors such as changing economic conditions, technological advancements, and sustainability developments will also shape the sector ahead.”

The report highlights that global business travel spending is anticipated to increase by 11.1% in 2024, following substantial growth of 30%-47% year-over-year in 2022 and 2023. From 2025 to 2028, growth is expected to moderate gradually, resulting in an annual compound growth rate of 6.95%.

In 2023, the industry recovered approximately $675 billion of the $770 billion lost in 2020, achieving 93% of the pre-pandemic peak of $1.43 trillion by the end of the year. The sector experienced significant resurgence, with spending growing by 30% compared to 2022, reaching $1.3 trillion.

The 2024 GBTA BTI Outlook reveals several key findings:

• Global business travel spending is expected to fully recover to its pre-pandemic total of $1.48 trillion in 2024, driven by more favorable economic conditions than anticipated in 2022 and 2023. However, when adjusted for inflation, spending levels are projected to lag behind pre-pandemic highs in the coming years, indicating that business travel volumes will remain below pre-pandemic levels.
• The estimated breakdown of the $1.34 trillion in 2023 business travel expenditures includes $501 billion for lodging, $282 billion for air travel, $245 billion for food and beverage, $165 billion for ground transportation, and $142 billion for other travel expenses.
• Recovery in business travel continues to vary by region. Asia Pacific emerged as the fastest-growing region in 2023 (36%), followed by Western Europe (33%) and North America (25%). The U.S., Middle East and Africa, and Latin America led the recovery in 2023, each achieving 100% or more of 2019 spending levels. In 2024, China and the U.S. are expected to remain the top markets for overall business travel spending.
• Business travel spending also varies across industries, with the financial and insurance activities sector projected to experience the most significant expansion (72%) through 2028. Conversely, the retail trade (41%) and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (32%) sectors are expected to see the least growth.

While the outlook is optimistic, several factors could impact the longer-term forecast for business travel. Persistent inflation, China’s slower recovery, geopolitical tensions, workforce challenges, and natural disasters could alter the outlook. An increased focus on corporate sustainability also has the potential to impact the sector, emphasizing the importance of coordinated action across the industry.

On the upside, ongoing economic stability, technological advancements—particularly in artificial intelligence (AI)—and stronger-than-expected economic growth in key markets like the U.S. and India could positively influence the business travel sector.

The survey of 4,100 business travelers revealed an increase in overall business travel, with international travel remaining below average. Sixty-four percent of business travelers globally reported increased spending on business travel compared to 2023, although over one-third (37%) experienced more restrictive travel policies since pre-COVID. Business travelers estimated their own spending at an average of $834 per person for their last business trip, with lodging accounting for $312 and food and beverage $153.

A majority (81%) of survey respondents found their most recent business trip very (46%) or moderately (35%) worthwhile in achieving their business objectives. The most common purpose of travel was attending seminars or training, followed by conventions and conferences.

Travel habits have evolved, with 76% of business travelers reporting the same or more travel compared to 2019. Two-fifths (40%) of trips were three-to-five-night stays, and 58% of travelers extended work trips for leisure or vacation. Comfort and cost minimization are key priorities, with a growing emphasis on reducing carbon emissions, particularly among European travelers.

Payment methods have also evolved, with nearly two-thirds (61%) of business travelers using corporate credit cards, and 59% uploading their cards to mobile wallets. Veronica Fernandez, head of Commercial Solutions for Visa, highlighted the role of digital payments in revolutionizing the travel experience, making transactions effortless and secure.

As business travel spending continues to expand, the industry remains focused on adapting to changing conditions and leveraging new technologies to enhance the travel experience.